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SPC High Risk Days
The SPC's categorical outlook system.

A high risk is the most serious category on the Storm Prediction Center's scale measuring the threat for severe weather on a given day. High risks are reserved for potential tornado outbreaks or derechos, which are long-lived squall lines that produce extensive wind damage along a path stretching for hundreds of miles.

Forecasters at the SPC don't issue high risks lightly. It's tough for the ingredients to come together just right for a major severe weather outbreak to unfold. High risks convey high confidence in a high-impact weather event.

While some of the worst tornadoes in modern history have occurred on high-risk days, it's important to remember that the vast majority of destructive tornadoes and tornado-related injuries and deaths occur on days without a high risk in place. All severe weather is dangerous.



Most recent high risk
Severe weather outlook for May 6, 2024.

The most recent high risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center appeared during a severe weather outbreak on Monday, May 6, 2024.

The high risk area covered much of Oklahoma and a portion of southern Kansas.

A powerful EF-4 tornado swept through the northeastern Oklahoma towns of Barnsdall and Bartlesville shortly after sunset on May 6. Two people died and several dozen more were injured along the tornado's 40+ mile path.

The initial area under a high risk was west of the EF-4 tornado's path. Dynamics slowly shifted east through the day, and forecasters adjusted the high risk closer toward Tulsa later in the afternoon. The powerful tornado occurred within the high risk area.

This was the 65th day since January 1, 2000, that the SPC has issued a high risk somewhere in the United States.




All high risk days since 2000
All high risks issued by the SPC since 2000.

There have been 224 same-day high risk outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center since January 1, 2000, accounting for 65 days over the past two-and-a-half decades. The SPC issues multiple forecast updates throughout the day—this map counts all of those updates.

All of the high risks were issued east of the Rocky Mountains, and the vast majority covered traditional Tornado Alley in the central U.S., as well as portions of Mississippi and Alabama.
















Areas that have seen multiple high risks
All high risks issued by the SPC since 2000.

The coverage of high risk outlooks since 2000 stands in as a solid climatology for which areas of the country are prone to some of the most extreme severe thunderstorms during the spring and summer months. Only a few areas have seen a single high risk; this includes Virginia Beach (April 16, 2011) and Tampa, Florida (January 22, 2017).

Communities on the central Plains and throughout the Mississippi Valley have witnessed 20-30 high risk areas since the turn of the milennium, with some areas seeing more than 30 individual high risk outlooks.

The maximum number of high-risk overlaps since 2000 appears in northeastern Mississippi, just southwest of Tupelo. These rural communities have fallen under 41 separate high risk outlooks, mostly driven by tornado outbreaks.









List of high risk days since 2000

Some of the dates below link out to pages that describe each high-risk day in more detail.

# Date # Date # Date
1 April 6, 2001 23 November 15, 2005 45 April 16, 2011
2 April 11, 2001 24 March 12, 2006 46 April 26, 2011
3 June 11, 2001 25 April 6, 2006 47 April 27, 2011
4 October 13, 2001 26 April 7, 2006 48 May 24, 2011
5 October 24, 2001 27 March 1, 2007 49 May 25, 2011
6 April 16, 2002 28 April 13, 2007 50 March 2, 2012
7 July 31, 2002 29 April 24, 2007 51 April 14, 2012
8 November 10, 2002 30 May 5, 2007 52 June 12, 2013
9 December 23, 2002 31 June 7, 2007 53 November 17, 2013
10 April 6, 2003 32 February 5, 2008 54 April 27, 2014
11 May 4, 2003 33 March 15, 2008 55 April 28, 2014
12 May 5, 2003 34 May 22, 2008 56 June 3, 2014
13 May 8, 2003 35 May 29, 2008 57 January 22, 2017
14 May 10, 2003 36 June 5, 2008 58 April 2, 2017
15 May 15, 2003 37 April 10, 2009 59 April 5, 2017
16 March 4, 2004 38 April 26, 2009 60 May 18, 2017
17 May 22, 2004 39 April 24, 2010 61 May 20, 2019
18 May 24, 2004 40 April 30, 2010 62 March 17, 2021
19 May 29, 2004 41 May 1, 2010 63 March 25, 2021
20 May 30, 2004 42 May 10, 2010 64 March 31, 2023
21 April 11, 2005 43 May 19, 2010 65 May 6, 2024
22 June 4, 2005 44 October 26, 2010



I didn't stick to the weather.