Dennis Mersereau | @wxdam
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2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries

The 2016 Democratic presidential primary saw a bitterly contested race between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats in the Senate.

The former first lady served as senator from New York from 2001 until she resigned in 2009 to become President Barack Obama’s Secretary of State. She competed for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008 and narrowly lost to Obama. Clinton’s past service and stature in the party made her the odds-on favorite to secure the nomination.

Sanders ran an insurgent outsider campaign against Clinton, often campaigning against the Democratic Party itself as he fought to gain support. He nearly beat Clinton in the Iowa Caucus on February 1, surprising political observers and propelling his campaign toward the later states. The contest quickly grew acrimonious between the Clinton and Sanders camps, sowing fault lines that proved difficult to heal even after the primary elections were over.

Clinton secured a series of decisive wins in large, delegate-rich states, earning her a lead that quickly proved insurmountable for the Sanders campaign. Sanders’ appeal to young voters and low-propensity voters allowed him to continue notching wins in less-populated states and states that allow independent voters to vote in partisan primaries.

Election results correlated closely along demographic lines—one could predict with reasonable accuracy the percentage of the vote each candidate would get simply based on the proportion of white to non-white voters in each state or territory.

The primary came to an end when the polls closed in Washington, D.C., on June 14. Including vote estimates from caucus states, Clinton won more than 3 million more votes than Sanders, beating the senator from Vermont 54.9% to 43.6% in the popular vote. Clinton was the first woman to serve as a major party's presidential nominee.

Fierce anti-Clinton sentiment stoked by Republicans and sections of the Sanders campaign continued through the party conventions in the summer, culminating in significant protests against Clinton and the Democratic Party by small but vocal groups of delegates throughout the convention. This animosity carried over into the general election in the fall.

Clinton chose Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine to serve as her running mate against Republican nominees Donald Trump and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. She held leads in almost all polls leading up to election day, but Trump’s ability to turn out low-propensity voters—who didn’t answer polling calls or didn’t get polled at all—alongside a larger-than-normal number of protest votes for third-party candidates, made the general election results exceptionally close come November 8, 2016.

Trump ultimately prevailed by beating Clinton by about 30,000 votes in several key swing states, winning the White House for Republicans. Despite Trump’s win, Clinton won 2.8 million more votes than Trump, securing the most votes ever won by a single person in American history up to that point.




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Maps:   State Results   |   County Winners   |   County Margins   |   D.C. Breakdown   |   P.R. Breakdown   |   Wash. Breakdown   |   Neb. Breakdown

Data:   Final Delegate Counts   |   Delegate Allocation By State/Territory   |   Racial Divide In Election Results   |   Popular Vote Results By State/Territory


2016 Democratic Primary
State Winner & Vote Shares

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

Hover over a state to see the vote breakdown between Clinton and Sanders. Nebraska and Washington held both caucuses and primaries; all delegates were allocated in the caucuses, so this map reflects the winner of the caucuses.

Base Map: Wikimedia Commons





2016 Democratic Primary
County Winners

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Tie


This map is an SVG file, so it may take a second for your browser to compile the image.
Data in Nebraska and Washington reflect the results of the binding caucuses.

Base Map: Wikimedia Commons



2016 Democratic Primary
Margins of Victory by County/District



Hillary Clinton:
  0.1% to 4.9%  
  5.0% to 9.9%  
  10.0% to 19.9%  
  20.0% to 29.9%  
  ≥30.0%  
  Bernie Sanders:  
0.1% to 4.9%
5.0% to 9.9%
10.0% to 19.9%
20.0% to 29.9%
≥ 30.0%
    Tie    

This map is an SVG file, so it may take a second for your browser to compile the image.
Data in Nebraska and Washington reflect the results of the binding caucuses.

Base Map: Wikimedia Commons




June 14, 2016 Washington D.C. Democratic Primary
Margins of Victory by Precinct



Hillary Clinton:
  0.1% to 4.9%  
  5.0% to 9.9%  
  10.0% to 19.9%  
  20.0% to 29.9%  
  ≥30.0%  
  Bernie Sanders:  
0.1% to 4.9%
5.0% to 9.9%
10.0% to 19.9%
20.0% to 29.9%
≥ 30.0%

This map is an SVG file, so it may take a second for your browser to compile the image.


June 5, 2016 Puerto Rico Democratic Primary
Margins of Victory by Senate District


Hillary Clinton:
  0.1% to 4.9%  
  5.0% to 9.9%  
  10.0% to 19.9%  
  20.0% to 29.9%  
  ≥30.0%  
  Bernie Sanders:  
0.1% to 4.9%
5.0% to 9.9%
10.0% to 19.9%
20.0% to 29.9%
≥ 30.0%

This map is an SVG file, so it may take a second for your browser to compile the image.
Results reported by senate district. Hover over a district to see the results breakdown.




2016 Democratic Primary
Washington Caucus and Washington Primary Results

Last Updated: June 7, 2016




2016 Democratic Primary
Nebraska Caucus and Nebraska Primary Results

Last Updated: May 26, 2016





2016 Democratic Primary Delegate Count



2016 Democratic Primary Pledged Delegate Allocation


2016 Democratic Primary Racial Divide

The number of non-Hispanic whites who live in a state is predictive of how well Hillary or Bernie will perform there. Hillary does better in states with a diverse population, while Bernie performs well when a state's population is relatively homogeneous.



2016 Democratic Primary Popular Vote Count

Date State Hillary Clinton % Bernie Sanders % Others % Total Votes Margin of Victory
February 1 Iowa* 85,383 49.9% 84,870 49.6% 1,027 0.6% 171,280 Hillary +513
February 9 New Hampshire 95,355 38.2% 152,193 61.0% 2,039 0.8% 253,010 Bernie +56,838
February 20 Nevada* 42.080 52.6% 37,840 47.3% 80 0.1% 80,000 Hillary +4,240
February 27 South Carolina 272,379 73.4% 96,498 26.0% 2,027 0.5% 370,904 Hillary +175,881
March 1 Alabama 309,071 77.9% 76,059 19.2% 11,721 3.0% 396,851 Hillary +233,012
American Samoa 162 72.6% 61 27.4% 0 0.0% 223 Hillary +101
Arkansas 146,057 66.1% 66,236 30.0% 8,727 3.9% 221,020 Hillary +79,821
Colorado 49,789 40.3% 72,846 59.0% 873 0.7% 123,508 Bernie +23,057
Georgia 545,674 71.3% 215,797 28.2% 3,895 0.5% 765,366 Hillary +329,877
Massachusetts 606,822 49.7% 589,803 48.3% 23,671 1.9% 1,220,296 Hillary +17,019
Minnesota 78,317 38.1% 125,635 61.2% 1,486 0.7% 205,438 Bernie +47,318
Oklahoma 139,443 41.5% 174,228 51.9% 22,172 6.6% 335,843 Bernie +34,785
Tennessee 245,930 66.1% 120,800 32.5% 5,492 1.5% 372,222 Hillary +125,130
Texas 936,004 65.2% 476,547 33.2% 23,344 1.6% 1,435,895 Hillary +459,457
Vermont 18,338 13.6% 115,900 86.0% 600 0.4% 134,838 Bernie +97,562
Virginia 504,741 64.3% 276,370 35.2% 3,930 0.5% 785,041 Hillary +228,371
March 5 Kansas 12,593 32.1% 26,637 67.9% 0 0.0% 39,230 Bernie +14,044
Louisiana 221,733 71.1% 72,276 23.2% 17,767 5.7% 311,776 Hillary +149,457
Nebraska Caucus** 14,338 42.9% 19,122 57.1% 0 0.0% 33,460 Bernie +4,784
March 6 Maine* 16,330 35.5% 29,578 64.3% 92 0.2% 46,000 Bernie +13,248
March 8 Michigan 581,775 48.3% 598,943 49.7% 24,834 2.1% 1,205,552 Bernie +17,168
Mississippi 187,334 82.5% 37,748 16.6% 2,082 0.9% 227,165 Hillary +149,586
March 12 Northern Marianas 102 54.0% 65 34.4% 22 11.6% 189 Hillary +37
March 15 Florida 1,101,414 64.4% 568,839 33.3% 38,930 2.3% 1,709,183 Hillary +532,575
Illinois 1,039,555 50.6% 999,494 48.6% 16,998 0.8% 2,056,047 Hillary +40,061
Missouri 312,285 49.6% 310,711 49.4% 6,429 1.0% 629,425 Hillary +1,574
North Carolina 622,915 54.5% 567,018 40.9% 52,983 4.6% 1,142,916 Hillary +155,897
Ohio 696,681 56.1% 535,395 43.1% 9,402 0.8% 1,241,478 Hillary +161,286
March 20 Democrats Abroad 10,689 30.9% 23,779 68.8% 81 0.2% 34,549 Bernie +13,090
March 22 Arizona 262,459 56.3% 192,962 41.4% 10,814 2.3% 466,235 Hillary +69,497
Idaho 5,065 21.2% 18,640 78.0% 179 0.7% 23,884 Hillary +13,575
Utah 16,166 20.3% 62,992 79.2% 368 0.5% 79,526 Bernie +46,826
March 26 Alaska 2,144 20.2% 8,447 79.6% 17 0.2% 10,608 Bernie +6,303
Hawaii 10,125 28.3% 25,530 71.5% 61 0.2% 35,716 Bernie +15,405
Washington Caucus** 62,629 27.2% 166,911 72.6% 460 0.2% 230,000 Bernie +104,282
April 5 Wisconsin 433,739 43.0% 570,192 56.6% 3,669 0.4% 1,007,600 Bernie +136,453
April 9 Wyoming 3,190 44.3% 4,010 55.7% 0 0.0% 7,200 Bernie +821
April 19 New York 1,133,980 58.0% 820,256 42.0% 0 0.0% 1,954,236 Hillary +313,724
April 26 Connecticut 170,048 51.8% 152,395 46.4% 5,832 1.8% 328,275 Hillary +17,653
Delaware 55,954 59.8% 36,662 39.2% 1,024 1.1% 93,640 Hillary +19,292
Maryland 573,242 62.5% 309,990 33.8% 33,531 3.7% 916,763 Hillary +263,252
Pennsylvania 935,107 55.6% 731,881 43.5% 14,439 0.9% 1,681,427 Hillary +203,226
Rhode Island 52,749 43.1% 66,993 54.7% 2,716 2.2% 122,458 Bernie +14,244
May 3 Indiana 303,705 47.5% 335,074 52.5% 0 0.0% 638,779 Bernie +31,369
May 7 Guam 777 59.5% 528 40.5% 0 0.0% 1,305 Hillary +249
May 10 West Virginia 86,914 35.8% 124,700 51.4% 30,925 12.8% 242,539 Bernie +37,786
Nebraska Primary** 42,665 53.1% 37,705 46.9% 0 0.0% 80,370 Hillary +4,960
May 17 Kentucky 212,534 46.8% 210,623 46.3% 31,408 6.9% 454,565 Hillary +1,911
Oregon 269,846 42.1% 360,829 56.2% 10,920 1.7% 641,595 Bernie +90,983
May 24 Washington Primary** 420,461 52.4% 382,293 47.6% 0 0.0% 802,754 Hillary +38,168
June 4 U.S. Virgin Islands 1,308 86.5% 186 12.3% 18 1.2% 1,512 Hillary +1,122
June 5 Puerto Rico 52,658 61.0% 33,368 38.7% 300 0.3% 85,108 Hillary +19,290
June 7 California 2,745,293 53.1% 2,381,714 46.0% 46,291 0.9% 5,173,298 Hillary +363,579
Montana 55,805 44.2% 65,156 51.6% 5,415 4.3% 126,716 Bernie +9,336
New Jersey 503,481 63.4% 290,067 36.6% 0 0.0% 793,548 Hillary +213,414
New Mexico 111,334 51.5% 104,741 48.5% 0 0.0% 216,075 Hillary +6,593
North Dakota*** 1,024 25.6% 2,568 64.2% 408 10.2% 4,000 Bernie +1,544
South Dakota 27,047 51.0% 25,959 49.0% 0 0.0% 53,006 Hillary +1,088
June 14 Washington D.C. 76,704 78.6% 20,361 20.9% 485 0.5% 97,550 Hillary +56,343
TOTALS: 17,521,442 54.9% 13,915,021 43.6% 479,984 1.5% 31,916,447 Hillary +3,606,420
*Five caucuses (IA, NV, ME, WA, ND) didn't report raw votes. Votes are estimated based on delegate equivalents and reported turnout.
**In addition to caucuses, Nebraska and Washington held non-binding primaries in which no delegates were allocated.
***North Dakota numbers based on turnout numbers obtained by electproject.org.

All popular vote data pulled from state/territorial websites. | Final update at 11:45 AM EDT September 7, 2016.




Data Sources: Delegate counts and popular vote totals by the great folks who run The Green Papers.
Demographic information from the 2010 U.S. Census. Voter turnout information from respective state government sources.


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